Trade Surplus Doubles To N12.60trn As Crude, Refinery Exports Lift Q2 Trade

By Jennete Ugo Anya

Nigeria’s merchandise trade expanded sharply in the second quarter (Q2) of 2026, but the improvement was driven predominantly by petroleum exports rather than broad-based non-oil diversification. Agricultural exports, meanwhile, recorded a steep 36 percent year-on-year decline.

The latest National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) trade data therefore present a mixed picture: a substantially stronger external trade balance alongside persistent weakness in some of the sectors expected to diversify Nigeria’s export base.

DEVELOPMENT

Nigeria’s total merchandise trade rose to N41.44 trillion in Q2 2026, with exports increasing while imports contracted significantly.

NBS said the performance was supported by crude oil and other petroleum-linked exports, including refined petroleum products, natural gas and urea. The continued ramp-up of the Dangote refinery has also altered the composition of petroleum trade, as Nigeria increasingly exports refined products while reducing dependence on imported fuels.

Crude oil remained the largest individual export, although its dominance within total exports continued to decline. For the first time in at least six years, non-crude petroleum exports collectively exceeded crude exports.

The improvement in the trade balance, however, has not been matched by a corresponding expansion in genuinely non-oil exports. Agricultural exports recorded one of the sharpest declines, while manufactured exports remained substantially below their level a year earlier.

NUMBERS

Total merchandise trade increased 5.61 percent year-on-year to N41.44 trillion, and rose 19.13 percent quarter-on-quarter.

Exports stood at N27.02 trillion, up 18.77 percent from a year earlier, while imports fell 12.55 percent to N14.42 trillion.

The resulting trade surplus reached N12.60 trillion, representing a 101.32 percent year-on-year increase from N6.26 trillion.

Crude oil exports were valued at N12.91 trillion, accounting for 47.79 percent of total exports.

Non-crude petroleum exports, including refined fuels, natural gas and urea, reached N14.11 trillion, or 52.21 percent of exports.

But genuinely non-oil exports amounted to only N3.73 trillion, representing 13.80 percent of total exports.

Agricultural exports fell 36.09 percent year-on-year to N802.99 billion, and declined 31.51 percent quarter-on-quarter.

By comparison, raw material exports increased 50.31 percent quarter-on-quarter to N2.31 trillion, while solid mineral exports rose 42.91 percent to N146.91 billion. Manufactured exports increased 29.87 percent quarter-on-quarter to N393.03 billion, but remained 51.10 percent below Q2 2025.

On the import side, manufactured goods remained dominant at N9.51 trillion, while mineral-product imports fell 66.5 percent year-on-year to N1.91 trillion.

SIGNIFICANCE

The headline trade surplus is positive for Nigeria’s external position, but its composition matters more than its size.

The data show that petroleum remains the central engine of export earnings, even as the definition of petroleum exports is changing. The rise of refined-product exports is reducing the relative dominance of crude and potentially increasing domestic value capture, but it does not yet amount to broad-based export diversification.

The 13.80 percent contribution of genuine non-oil products is the more important structural number. Agriculture, in particular, is moving in the opposite direction, with exports falling sharply despite the sector’s importance to diversification and rural incomes.

The import data also point to an economy still heavily dependent on foreign machinery, transport equipment, manufactured goods and industrial inputs. China’s N5.92 trillion share of Nigerian imports, equivalent to 41 percent, underscores the depth of that external supply dependence.

For investors and policymakers, the key distinction is therefore between a stronger trade position and a more diversified trade structure. The former is improving faster than the latter.

NEXT MOVE

The next quarterly trade releases should show whether the Q2 improvement can be sustained and whether non-oil exports begin to increase their share of total exports.

Particular attention should go to agricultural exports, manufactured exports and the performance of solid minerals and other emerging non-oil categories.

The market should also watch the Dangote refinery’s export volumes and domestic supply contribution, as further increases in refined-product production could continue to reshape Nigeria’s petroleum trade balance.

On the import side, the trajectory of petroleum-product imports will remain important, particularly as domestic refining capacity expands.

OUR LENS

Nigeria’s external trade position is improving, but the composition of that improvement tells a more complicated story. The country is capturing more value from its petroleum chain through refined-product exports, yet genuine non-oil exports remain stuck at just 13.8 percent of total exports, while agricultural exports are contracting sharply.

The deeper signal is that Nigeria is diversifying within oil faster than it is diversifying away from oil. The sustainability of the trade improvement will ultimately depend on whether manufacturing, agriculture and other non-oil sectors can begin converting their productive capacity into export earnings at scale.

Jennete Ugo Anya is a journalist and researcher with interests across Nigeria’s economy, public policy, business, development and strategic communications.