Business Confidence Rises To 111.3 As Key Sectors Expand In October

By Enam Obiosio

Nigeria’s business sentiment strengthened in October 2025, with the Nigerian Economic Summit Group (NESG)–Stanbic IBTC Business Confidence Monitor (BCM) reporting a rise in the Business Confidence Index (BCI) to 111.3 points from 107.9 points in September.

The latest reading marks a sharp improvement from 76.8 points recorded in October 2024 and confirms that optimism is returning across the private sector. The report, jointly issued by the NESG and Stanbic IBTC Bank, shows that all five major sectors remained in expansion mode through the month.

Why It Happened
Analysts behind the BCM report say the rise reflects improving perceptions of current business conditions, easing inflation, and a more stable exchange rate. The report notes: “Nigeria’s business environment maintained its positive trajectory,” with the current business performance index firmly in expansion territory.
Sector by sector, manufacturing, trade, agriculture, services and non-manufacturing all posted gains, supported by better access to finance, relatively stable power supply, improved seed varieties, targeted government interventions and more predictable FX conditions.
The manufacturing index rebounded to 111.3 points from 102.5 after September’s contraction, helped by recovery in food, beverage and tobacco and cement. Agriculture rose to 111.4 points, driven by stronger crop production and agro-allied output. Trade and Services also expanded, although some sub-sectors such as Professional, Scientific and Technical Services recorded slower growth.

Who Benefits
Private-sector operators across agriculture, manufacturing, trade and services benefit from the broad-based improvement. The report highlights gains for businesses that rely on more stable power, better FX access and targeted input support. Farmers saw relief from improved seed varieties and input programmes. Manufacturers and traders benefited from stronger demand and reduced volatility.

Who Loses
Challenges remain for operators struggling with higher feed costs, shortages of raw materials, and disease outbreaks in livestock. Sub-sectors with slower growth, such as Professional and Technical Services, continue to face fragile recovery conditions. Businesses dependent on imported inputs still contend with elevated production costs due to the exchange rate.

What the Recognition Signifies
The rise in the index signals that confidence is becoming more broad-based and not confined to a few industries. It also reinforces earlier data showing that Nigeria’s private sector is gaining momentum, with the Composite PMI rising to 56.4 points in November from 55.4 in October. For policymakers, the BCM reading is an affirmation that recent macroeconomic stabilisation efforts are gaining traction.

What to Expect Next
The report calls for sustained reforms to keep the momentum. It identifies the need for stronger infrastructure, improved access to credit, enhanced security, and predictable policy interventions. With all major sectors in expansion territory, analysts expect business activity to remain on a growth path so long as inflation continues to moderate and FX conditions stay relatively stable.