Nigeria’s inflation trajectory softened further in November 2025, offering businesses a clearer view of cost trends after months of volatility. Fresh data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) shows headline inflation easing to 14.45 percent, reflecting moderation in consumer prices under the newly rebased Consumer Price Index (CPI) and signaling a potential turning point for planning, pricing, and investment decisions.
What happened
The NBS reported that headline inflation slowed to 14.45 percent year on year in November, down from 16.05 percent in October. This occurred even as the CPI rose to 130.5 points from 128.9 points, indicating that prices continued to rise month on month, but at a slower annual pace.
On a monthly basis, inflation accelerated slightly to 1.22 percent from 0.93 percent in October, showing that while inflation is easing structurally, short-term price pressures remain active in the economy.
A key driver of the sharp annual slowdown was the rebasing of the CPI, with 2024 adopted as the new base year instead of 2009. As a result, headline inflation in November 2025 was more than 20 percentage points lower than the 34.60 percent recorded in the same period of 2024.
Who benefits
Businesses and consumers stand to gain from the continued moderation in annual inflation. Lower headline inflation improves purchasing power, stabilises input costs, and supports more predictable pricing across sectors.
Organised private sector (OPS) groups have welcomed the easing trend, noting that it creates room for demand recovery and improved cash flow, particularly for consumer-facing businesses. Manufacturers, retailers, and service providers benefit from a slower pace of price escalation, while lenders gain a more stable environment for credit expansion.
The slowdown also provides policymakers with additional room to fine-tune monetary and fiscal measures without exacerbating inflationary pressures.
Who loses
Companies heavily exposed to short-term price spikes, especially in food supply chains and logistics, continue to face pressure from month-on-month increases. Rural inflation accelerated sharply to 1.88 percent in November, highlighting persistent cost challenges outside urban centres.
Businesses that rely on volatile food inputs or operate in states with rising month-on-month inflation may still struggle to pass costs to consumers, particularly as demand remains sensitive.
What it means
The data suggests that Nigeria’s inflation story is entering a more nuanced phase. While annual inflation is slowing significantly, driven largely by statistical rebasing, underlying price movements remain active.
Food and non-alcoholic beverages remain the largest contributor to headline inflation, accounting for 5.78 percentage points year on year. Transport, housing, and restaurant services also continue to exert upward pressure on prices, reflecting structural cost issues such as energy, logistics, and urban living expenses.
Core inflation, which excludes food and energy, declined to 18.04 percent year on year, pointing to easing pressure in non-volatile segments of the economy. This trend supports a more stable operating environment for businesses with longer planning horizons.
Location matters
Inflation dynamics varied widely across states, highlighting the importance of location-specific strategies. Rivers, Ogun, and Ekiti recorded the highest year-on-year inflation rates, while Plateau, Kebbi, and Katsina posted the lowest.
On a month-on-month basis, Bayelsa, Gombe, and Edo recorded the sharpest increases, while Plateau, Delta, and Kaduna saw declines. These differences reflect variations in consumption patterns, supply chains, and local cost drivers.
Food inflation at the state level followed a similar pattern, with Kogi, Ogun, and Rivers recording the highest annual increases, while Imo, Katsina, and Akwa Ibom experienced slower food price growth.
What to expect
The NBS cautioned that state-level comparisons should be interpreted carefully, as CPI weights differ across locations. Still, the overall trend points to a gradual easing in inflationary pressure, even as short-term price movements persist.
For businesses, the outlook suggests a period of cautious optimism. Planning assumptions may improve as inflation stabilises, but cost management remains critical, particularly in food, energy, and logistics. Much will depend on sustained policy consistency, targeted credit support for MSMEs, and continued improvement in supply-side conditions.
Inflation may be slowing, but the path to price stability remains uneven.
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