Nigeria’s economy is expected to grow by 4.49 percent in 2026, up from an estimated 3.89 percent in 2025, according to the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN). After years of inflation pressure, currency swings and weak consumer confidence, the projection offers a note of cautious hope.
The central bank links this outlook to better coordination between fiscal and monetary policies, ongoing reforms by the federal government, rising oil output and increased private sector investment. In plain terms, the CBN believes the foundations being laid now could begin to deliver more stable and visible growth next year.
Why the CBN is optimistic
Policy consistency sits at the centre of the forecast. The CBN says clearer fiscal planning and a more predictable monetary approach have helped steady the foreign exchange market, attract capital and improve government revenue. If these trends hold, they could support stronger growth over the medium term.
The bank also expects its easing monetary stance to make a difference. Lower borrowing costs should encourage banks to lend more to businesses and households. This, in turn, could support spending, expansion and job creation across the economy.
Private sector investment is another key driver. The CBN points to projects such as the Dangote Refinery, which is expected to reduce fuel imports and strengthen local industrial output. Higher crude oil production, backed by improved security around oil assets and closer monitoring, is also expected to support growth.
What this means for key sectors
The oil and gas sector stands to benefit from higher production and increased activity across the value chain. More gas processing and transportation could also support power supply and manufacturing.
Services are expected to remain the backbone of economic activity. Transport infrastructure, trade and logistics are likely to gain from continued public and private investment. Wholesale and retail trade should also benefit if consumer spending improves.
ICT remains one of the economy’s strongest performers. Investments in 5G expansion, better internet access and wider use of digital tools by businesses and government are expected to keep the sector growing.
Real estate is also projected to contribute to growth. Government support, gradual expansion of mortgage financing and steady housing demand are expected to sustain activity, even as affordability remains a concern for many households.
How households may feel the impact
For households, the biggest hope lies in jobs and access to credit. If banks lend more and businesses expand, employment opportunities could improve. A more stable exchange rate and better supply conditions may also help slow price increases over time.
That said, relief may come gradually. Inflation remains high, and many families may first feel improvement through better job prospects rather than lower daily costs.
What to watch in the markets
For investors, policy discipline will be key. Better coordination between fiscal spending and monetary policy could help reduce volatility in the foreign exchange and fixed income markets. Increased government spending ahead of the 2027 elections may support demand, but it also raises questions about fiscal pressure.
Equities could benefit if companies in banking, industry, ICT and consumer sectors record stronger earnings, provided reforms stay on track.
The risks and the opportunity
The opportunity is clear. Sustained reforms and consistent policies could unlock stronger private investment and more durable growth.
The risks are also real. Election spending could strain public finances, and any reversal of reforms could unsettle markets. External shocks, such as lower oil prices or global financial tightening, remain a concern.
For businesses and households, the outlook suggests room to plan and adapt, but with care. For policymakers, the task is to keep policies steady and reforms moving. If that happens, 2026 could mark a more stable phase for Nigeria’s economy.
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