United Capital Forecasts Inflation Drop To 15.48 Percent In November

By Enam Obiosio

United Capital Plc has projected that Nigeria’s headline inflation will fall to 15.48 percent in November 2025, down from 16.05 percent in October. The projection was issued in an inflation watch report released by the firm’s research team led by Mr. Ayo Akinwunmi, Chief Economist at United Capital.

Why It Happened
The analysts attribute the expected decline to easing pressures in both the energy and food markets. Bonny Light crude averaged US$65.22 per barrel in November, a slight drop from $66.15 in October. More importantly, the retail price of Premium Motor Spirit (PMS) fell from N922 per litre at the end of October to about N900 by late November, helped by fresh price cuts from Dangote Refinery. The moderation in petrol prices filtered into transportation, hospitality and food services. Food price movements were mixed, but significant declines were recorded in local rice, maize and garri, while imported rice saw a small uptick. The naira weakened on a month end basis but still posted a stronger monthly average, which helped limit the cost impact on some imported items.

Who Benefits
Households and businesses operating in transport dependent sectors stand to gain from cheaper PMS, as the relief trickles into travel, logistics and food distribution. Consumers also benefit from the drop in prices of key staples such as local rice, maize and garri. For policymakers, the expected slowdown offers a breather after months of elevated inflation.

Who Loses
Importers of food items exposed to exchange rate movements face higher costs where the naira’s late month depreciation squeezed margins. Households that rely on imported rice will feel the impact of the product’s price increase. Operators who benefited from earlier high inflationary pricing may also see thinner mark ups.

What the Recognition Signifies
The projection signals that inflationary pressures may be gradually easing as supply conditions improve and fuel prices stabilize. It also indicates that recent market adjustments, including domestic refining activity, are beginning to shape retail energy prices more predictably.

What to Expect Next
Analysts believe further moderation is possible if PMS prices continue to trend lower and food supply remains stable. However, exchange rate volatility remains a risk. The November data will give clearer direction for monetary policy positioning as the Central Bank weighs its next steps to sustain a downward inflation path.