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Mortgage Fund Growth Signals Liquidity, Not Yet Affordability

by StakeBridge
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By Enam Obiosio

 

The Federal Mortgage Bank of Nigeria (FMBN) recorded N152.4 billion National Housing Fund (NHF) collections in 2025, a 48 percent increase from N103 billion in 2024 and the highest annual inflow since the scheme’s creation.

Managing Director Shehu Osidi stated: “Our NHF collections reached N152.4 billion, representing over 48% year-on-year growth and the highest annual collection in the history of the scheme.”

He added: “We also grew our contributor base by registering over 139,000 new contributors in 2025… bringing the total number of new contributors under our two-year tenure to well over 300,000 Nigerians.”

Refunds rose to N15.6 billion benefiting 55,068 contributors, while project disbursements and housing finance expanded across multiple programmes.

DECISION HIGHLIGHT

The housing finance system is transitioning from a dormant contributory scheme into an actively mobilised savings pool.

DECISION MEMO

The surge in NHF collections indicates improved institutional confidence in FMBN. Yet the deeper question is whether liquidity mobilisation translates into housing accessibility.

Housing finance systems succeed only when contributions convert efficiently into mortgage ownership. The data shows collection growth far outpacing individual mortgage disbursement growth.

Total collections reached N152.4 billion. Individual mortgage disbursement stood at N8.2 billion. The gap illustrates the structural reality of Nigeria’s housing system, funding accumulation is easier than housing delivery.

Osidi’s reforms focused on financial sustainability, operational efficiency and institutional renewal. The results show administrative revival. Refund turnaround improved. Contributor registration increased. Loan recovery strengthened, with 123 percent repayment performance among Primary Mortgage Banks.

These are necessary preconditions for a mortgage market but not sufficient conditions for affordability.

The bank financed 6,911 housing units in 2025, 96 percent of its target. Yet Nigeria’s housing deficit runs into tens of millions of units. In macro terms, the system has moved from inactivity to motion, but not yet to scale.

The presence of Rent-to-Own and renovation loans suggests the institution is compensating for the limited availability of conventional mortgages. Instead of long-term housing finance dominating the portfolio, hybrid affordability instruments are expanding.

This reveals the core structural constraint, Nigeria’s housing challenge is less a financing shortage than a pricing mismatch between incomes and property values.

The N100 billion off-taker guarantee under the Renewed Hope Housing Programme demonstrates government willingness to underwrite demand. However, guarantees support supply pipelines, not necessarily household purchasing power.

Osidi acknowledged another constraint, the single obligor limit restricting lending volume. His call for recapitalisation implies that liquidity mobilisation has outgrown the bank’s balance sheet capacity.

Therefore, the current phase is institutional stabilisation. The next phase must be market deepening. Without secondary mortgage markets, long-term fixed rate instruments and scalable housing supply chains, higher collections risk accumulating as quasi-savings rather than homeownership conversion.

The numbers show progress. The structure shows unfinished reform.

DATA BOX

NHF collections
• 2023: N100bn (previous record)
• 2024: N103bn
• 2025: N152.4bn (+48%)

New contributors
• 2023: 113,577
• 2024: 178,619
• 2025: 139,000+
• Two-year total: 300,000+

Refunds
• 2023: N13.2bn (40,426 beneficiaries)
• 2024: N14.4bn (44,333 beneficiaries)
• 2025: N15.6bn (55,068 beneficiaries)

Disbursements
• Project loans 2025: N79bn
• Individual mortgages: N8.2bn
• Housing units financed: 6,911

Credit quality
• PMB repayment: 123% (2025) vs 85% (2024)

WHO WINS / WHO LOSES

Winners:
Contributors gaining improved refund efficiency
Developers accessing structured housing finance
Government housing programmes requiring off-taker guarantees

Losers:
Low-income households facing affordability gaps
Primary mortgage banks constrained by capital limits
Workers whose contributions outpace mortgage access

POLICY SIGNALS

Government is prioritising institutional rehabilitation before market liberalisation.
Housing policy is shifting toward pooled savings mobilisation.
Recapitalisation may become necessary to scale mortgage penetration.

INVESTOR SIGNAL

Improved collections and repayment discipline strengthen confidence in housing finance intermediaries.
However, absence of deep mortgage securitisation markets limits institutional investor participation.

RISK RADAR

Affordability risk if collections grow faster than housing supply
Liquidity concentration risk inside a single institution
Policy credibility risk if contributors cannot access mortgages
Balance sheet risk without recapitalisation

Nigeria’s housing finance system is becoming functional.
It is not yet becoming transformational.

 


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