AfCFTA Trade Growth Exposes Nigeria’s Cargo, Logistics Gaps

• Rising AfCFTA trade volumes may deepen growth, but without cargo reform Nigeria risks shipping goods while losing jobs, margins, and strategic control

The Sea Empowerment and Research Centre (SEREC) has warned that Nigeria’s rising intra-African trade will not translate into jobs, competitiveness, or retained value unless the country adopts a structured national cargo consolidation framework. In a position paper addressed to the Ministers of Marine and Blue Economy and Aviation and Aerospace Development, and in a policy white paper submitted to the Presidency, SEREC argued that cargo consolidation must shift from an ad-hoc logistics practice to a core trade and employment strategy under the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA).

DECISION HIGHLIGHT
Decision type: Trade logistics and employment strategy proposal
Decision owner: Federal transport, trade, and logistics authorities
Policy proponent: Sea Empowerment and Research Centre (SEREC)
Core reform proposed: National cargo consolidation ecosystem
Primary objective: Job creation and AfCFTA competitiveness
Sectors impacted: Maritime, aviation, MSMEs, agriculture, light manufacturing
Headline implication: Nigeria is trading more, but exporting logistics value and jobs

DECISION MEMO
Nigeria’s AfCFTA numbers are improving, but SEREC’s argument is blunt, trade volumes alone do not create jobs. Logistics systems do.

In its position paper signed by Eugene Nweke, Head of Research at SEREC, the centre said a structured cargo consolidation ecosystem could generate tens of thousands of direct jobs across maritime and aviation value chains, with indirect employment in trucking, cold-chain logistics, ICT, insurance and finance estimated at two to three times that number.

Roles such as freight planners, load controllers, cargo analysts, warehouse operators and customs compliance officers, SEREC said, would anchor new logistics employment clusters around ports and airports. Without this structure, Nigeria risks remaining a volume exporter while foreign hubs capture the high-value logistics functions.

The warning comes against strong AfCFTA momentum. Nigeria’s share of intra-African trade jumped by more than 127 percent, from $8.1billion in 2023 to $18.43billion in 2024, representing about 8.3 percent of total intra-African trade. At the continental level, intra-African trade expanded by 12.4 percent to $220.3billion. Nigeria’s exports to African markets also rose by 14 percent in the first half of 2025 to about N4.82trillion ($3.3billion).

Yet SEREC insists the country is structurally unprepared to convert this growth into durable competitiveness. “Trade agreements do not move cargo, logistics systems do,” the centre said, pointing to persistent weaknesses in road haulage, port evacuation, hinterland connectivity and, critically, cargo aggregation and consolidation.

According to SEREC, Nigeria’s logistics and freight forwarding market, valued at about $6.47billion in 2025, and its air freight market, estimated at $8.18billion, remain fragmented. The absence of structured consolidation systems forces exporters into higher per-unit freight costs, irregular sailings, indirect routing through non-African hubs and weaker delivery-time reliability.

“In effect, Nigeria produces cargo but exports the logistics value chain,” SEREC said, noting that Nigerian cargo is often consolidated offshore, allowing foreign operators to dominate express and high-value freight segments.

The paradox is visible in maritime data. Nigeria’s seaports recorded a 45 percent increase in throughput, from 71.2 million metric tonnes in 2023 to about 103.3 million metric tonnes in 2024, while container handling rose by nearly 9.7 percent. But SEREC argued that volume growth has not delivered proportional efficiency gains due to evacuation bottlenecks and weak inland connectivity. Designated consolidation hubs, especially for short-sea African shipping, are missing links.

The imbalance is sharper in aviation. While maritime transport accounts for over 97 percent of Nigeria’s exports by volume, air transport carries just about 0.38 percent of exports by value, roughly $45million. This is despite projections that Nigeria’s air freight market could grow to $11.82billion by 2031.

SEREC described this as a policy failure rather than a demand problem, driven by the absence of structured air cargo consolidation and dedicated cargo infrastructure. It called for incentives to encourage indigenous airlines to migrate, partially or wholly, into dedicated freighter operations, arguing that cargo offers more stable and predictable revenues than passenger services.

“AfCFTA-driven intra-African trade will significantly expand cargo volumes, and dedicated freighters support night operations, regional hubs and airline sustainability,” the centre said.

Its recommendations extend beyond aviation. SEREC proposed national air cargo airports, sea–air and air–sea corridors, bonded multimodal routes, and a National Multimodal Logistics Council to align aviation, maritime, trade and customs policies.

The underlying message is structural. Cargo consolidation, SEREC concluded, is “not merely a logistics practice but a national economic instrument.” Without it, Nigeria risks remaining a passive AfCFTA participant, shipping goods while forfeiting jobs, margins and strategic control.

“Nigeria cannot trade competitively in Africa without consolidating competitively at home,” the centre said.

DATA BOX
Nigeria intra-African trade (2024): $18.43bn
Growth from 2023: +127%
Africa intra-trade (2024): $220.3bn (+12.4%)
Nigeria exports to Africa, H1 2025: N4.82tn ($3.3bn)
Logistics market size (2025): ~$6.47bn
Air freight market size: ~$8.18bn
Seaport throughput (2024): 103.3m metric tonnes (+45%)
Air exports share: ~0.38% (~$45m)
Projected air freight market (2031): ~$11.82bn

WHO WINS / WHO LOSES
Winners: MSME exporters, logistics workers, indigenous airlines, port communities, trade financiers.
Losers: Fragmented exporters, Nigerian freight operators bypassed by offshore hubs, job seekers in logistics value chains.

POLICY SIGNALS
AfCFTA success is shifting the policy focus from market access to logistics capability. Cargo consolidation is emerging as a competitiveness and employment policy, not a technical afterthought.

INVESTOR SIGNAL
Logistics infrastructure and consolidation hubs present scalable investment opportunities. Investors should track policy coordination, incentives for freighters, and multimodal corridor development.

RISK RADAR
Key risks include policy inertia, inter-ministerial fragmentation, infrastructure bottlenecks, and continued offshore consolidation of Nigerian cargo. Without decisive action, rising trade volumes will continue to leak value and jobs abroad.