By Olumide Johnson
Nigeria’s crude oil production declined to 1.31 million barrels per day (mbpd) in February, according to data released by the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries. The figure represents a 10.69 percent drop from the 1.45million barrels per day recorded in January.
The decline pushed Nigeria further below its 1.5 mbpd production quota under the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) supply framework. The country therefore missed the opportunity to fully capture the benefits of rising global oil prices triggered by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.
Despite the production decline, Nigeria maintained its position as Africa’s largest crude oil producer, marginally ahead of Libya, which recorded 1.28 million barrels per day during the same period.
In parallel with the production slowdown, the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited reduced retail petrol prices at its stations to N1,130 per litre in Lagos and N1,165 per litre in Abuja.
DECISION HIGHLIGHT
The OPEC reported that Nigeria’s crude oil production declined to 1.31 million barrels per day in February, falling short of the country’s 1.5 million barrels per day production quota.
At the same time, the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPCL) reduced petrol prices at retail stations to N1,130 per litre in Lagos and N1,165 per litre in Abuja, following earlier adjustments in wholesale supply prices.
DECISION MEMO
Nigeria’s oil sector continues to operate within a structural contradiction. The country remains one of Africa’s largest hydrocarbon producers, yet persistent operational disruptions frequently prevent it from meeting production targets even when global prices are favourable.
The February production decline illustrates the economic cost of that constraint. With crude prices briefly crossing the $100 per barrel threshold in early March amid geopolitical tensions linked to the United States and Israeli conflict with Iran, oil exporters with stable production levels were positioned to benefit from a temporary price rally.
Nigeria’s inability to sustain output levels therefore translated directly into foregone revenue.
The OPEC indicated that its production figures were obtained through direct communication with Nigerian authorities. The report also referenced secondary data sources that estimated Nigeria’s production at 1.46 million barrels per day, suggesting marginally higher output but still reflecting stagnation relative to the previous month.
The wider context is an evolving global supply environment. Members of OPEC and allied producers agreed to increase production by 206,000 barrels per day beginning in April, reflecting attempts to stabilise supply amid market volatility.
For Nigeria, the central issue is less about global supply dynamics and more about domestic production capability. Oil theft, infrastructure vandalism, aging upstream facilities and underinvestment in field development have repeatedly constrained output.
The reduction in petrol prices by the NNPC adds another dimension to the situation. Lower retail prices reflect shifts in supply costs following price adjustments at the Dangote Refinery and changes in crude price movements.
However, the simultaneous occurrence of falling production and fluctuating fuel prices underscores the complexity of Nigeria’s energy transition from a crude exporting economy to a domestically refined fuel market.
DATA BOX
Nigeria crude production February 2026: 1.31 million barrels per day
Nigeria crude production January 2026: 1.45 million barrels per day
Production decline month on month: 10.69 percent
Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries quota for Nigeria: 1.5 million barrels per day
Shortfall from quota: about 190,000 barrels per day
Secondary source estimate of production: 1.46 million barrels per day
Libya crude production February 2026: 1.28 million barrels per day
Petrol price in Lagos after adjustment: N1,130 per litre
Petrol price in Abuja after adjustment: N1,165 per litre
Previous petrol price Lagos: N1,230 per litre
Previous petrol price Abuja: N1,260 per litre
WHO WINS / WHO LOSES
Consumers benefit marginally from reduced petrol prices as retail costs decline at NNPC stations.
Independent marketers may also gain flexibility as lower wholesale prices from domestic refining sources create room for price adjustments.
The federal government potentially loses revenue from reduced crude output, particularly at a time when global prices briefly surged.
State governments, which depend heavily on oil revenue allocations from the Federation Account, may also face lower distributable income if production constraints persist.
POLICY SIGNALS
The decline reinforces ongoing concerns about Nigeria’s capacity to maintain stable oil production despite significant reserves.
It also highlights the urgency of upstream sector reforms, including pipeline security, improved investment frameworks and infrastructure rehabilitation.
The emerging influence of domestic refining capacity, particularly from large scale refineries, suggests that Nigeria’s fuel pricing dynamics may increasingly decouple from traditional crude export patterns.
INVESTOR SIGNAL
For investors in Nigeria’s oil sector, the production shortfall signals persistent operational risk within the upstream industry.
However, the growth of domestic refining capacity and the resulting influence on retail fuel pricing may create new investment opportunities across downstream supply chains, logistics and storage infrastructure.
Investors will closely monitor whether Nigeria can stabilise crude production while simultaneously expanding domestic refining capacity.
RISK RADAR
Production risk remains the most immediate concern. Continued disruptions in pipeline infrastructure and crude evacuation systems could sustain output volatility.
Revenue risk also remains significant. If production levels remain below quota while global prices fluctuate, Nigeria’s fiscal position will remain vulnerable to external shocks.
Market transition risk is also emerging. As domestic refining capacity expands, the interaction between crude exports, local refining economics and fuel pricing could reshape Nigeria’s energy market structure.
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