The Revenue Mobilisation Allocation and Fiscal Commission (RMAFC) denied reports claiming it had recommended the transfer of disputed oil and gas wells to any oil-producing state.
Mohammed Shehu, Chairman of RMAFC, stated: “At this stage, there is no finalised recommendation or decision regarding the ceding or reallocation of any oil wells, as due institutional processes are still ongoing.”
He clarified the commission only received a draft inter-agency report on 13 February 2026 and had forwarded it to the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC), National Boundary Commission, and Office of the Surveyor-General for technical review.
He described the circulating report as “speculative, inaccurate, and capable of misleading the public.”
DECISION HIGHLIGHT
The commission chose procedural caution over political clarity, effectively delaying fiscal expectations tied to derivation revenue allocation.
DECISION MEMO
Nigeria’s oil revenue structure is less a geological issue than a constitutional one. Every rumour about well ownership immediately translates into projected state income, and therefore political tension. The RMAFC intervention is not simply a denial, it is a containment strategy.
By emphasising that the document in circulation is only a draft, the commission is protecting institutional legitimacy. Oil well attribution determines derivation revenue, and derivation revenue determines subnational fiscal capacity. Premature interpretation converts technical mapping into political entitlement.
The chairman’s statement signals a defensive communication posture. The commission is aware that once fiscal expectations form, they are politically irreversible even if legally incorrect. In this context, misinformation is not just inaccurate reporting, it is potential budget destabilisation for multiple states simultaneously.
Historical precedent explains the sensitivity. Court rulings in 2012 and 2021 reshaped state revenues overnight, meaning market actors, lenders, and governments now treat boundary adjustments as balance sheet events. A single well reassignment can alter monthly FAAC receipts materially.
The inter-agency review therefore functions as a risk-management mechanism rather than a bureaucratic delay. Geological coordinates must align with constitutional boundaries and regulatory certification before fiscal consequences emerge. Until then, the commission is attempting to keep political actors from pricing revenue that does not yet exist.
The deeper implication is that Nigeria’s federation still ties economic planning to extractive geography. Any ambiguity around well ownership becomes a macro-fiscal uncertainty channel. The RMAFC’s communication tries to prevent fiscal expectations from outrunning institutional verification.
DATA BOX
Draft report received: 13 February 2026
Key reviewing agencies: NUPRC, National Boundary Commission, Surveyor-General
Major precedents:
2012 Supreme Court ruling allocating 76 wells to Akwa Ibom
17 wells awarded to Rivers State
2021 ruling restraining transfer to Imo State
WHO WINS / WHO LOSES
Winners
Federal fiscal stability in the short term
States not currently expecting losses
Investors preferring legal certainty before revenue changes
Losers
States anticipating immediate derivation gains
Political actors leveraging anticipated allocations
Budget planners relying on speculative revenue projections
POLICY SIGNALS
Government intends to anchor resource allocation decisions strictly within institutional verification processes rather than political negotiation.
INVESTOR SIGNAL
Energy sector investors receive reassurance that revenue attribution will follow legal and technical validation, reducing sudden regulatory shocks tied to territorial disputes.
RISK RADAR
Political tension risk if expectations have already formed
Revenue volatility risk for state budgets
Litigation risk following eventual allocation decisions
Market sentiment risk around subnational creditworthiness
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