Nigeria\u2019s stabilisation gains have come at high social cost. While inflation is easing, household welfare remains under pressure from food prices, unemployment, and reduced public investment. NESG warns that consolidation will fail without credible social protection and job creation.<\/p>\n
DECISION HIGHLIGHT<\/strong><\/p>\n DECISION MEMO <\/strong> NESG\u2019s analysis shows that public debt rose to N152.4 trillion by mid-2025, with the Debt Burden Index signalling elevated repayment risk. While fiscal restraint restored confidence, it also compressed social and infrastructure spending.<\/p>\n This creates a political economy dilemma. Stabilisation without welfare translation risks backlash. NESG explicitly argues that consolidation must include expanded social protection, apprenticeship schemes, and labour-intensive programmes to sustain reform legitimacy.<\/p>\n The message is clear: macro stability that excludes households is unstable by design.<\/p>\n DATA BOX<\/strong><\/p>\n WHO WINS \/ WHO LOSES<\/strong><\/p>\n POLICY SIGNALS<\/strong> INVESTOR SIGNAL<\/strong> RISK RADAR<\/strong><\/p>\n Nigeria\u2019s stabilisation gains have come at high social cost. While inflation is easing, household welfare remains under pressure from food prices, unemployment, and reduced public investment.…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":2246,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_lmt_disableupdate":"","_lmt_disable":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2}},"categories":[2],"tags":[1371,1369,1370,708,1362],"class_list":["post-2242","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-economy-policy","tag-debt-burden","tag-fiscal-policy","tag-macroeconomic-stability","tag-nesg","tag-nigeria-economy"],"yoast_head":"\n\n
\nFiscal consolidation is Nigeria\u2019s tightrope. Revenues improved in 2025, particularly from non-oil taxes, yet debt service absorbed an outsized share of spending. Capital expenditure collapsed, crowding out growth-enhancing investments.<\/p>\n\n
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\nFiscal discipline must now prove socially intelligent.<\/p>\n
\nPolitical sustainability is now a core macro risk variable.<\/p>\n\n