By Jennete Ugo Anya
Nigeria’s average daily consumption of Premium Motor Spirit (pms) declined to 56.9 million litres in February 2026, down from 60.2 million litres recorded in January.
The figures were released in new supply data from the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA), which tracks domestic fuel demand and distribution across the country.
The data also indicated a reduction in petrol supply from the Dangote Refinery during the same period.
Despite the emergence of private refining capacity, Nigeria’s state-owned refineries contributed little to domestic petrol output during the period under review, remaining largely inactive.
The development reflects continuing adjustments in Nigeria’s fuel supply system as the country attempts to transition from heavy import dependence toward greater domestic refining.
DECISION HIGHLIGHT
Nigeria’s petrol consumption fell to 56.9 million litres per day in February 2026, while domestic refining supply dynamics remained uneven despite the presence of new private refining capacity.
DECISION MEMO
The decline in Nigeria’s petrol consumption during February reflects a combination of evolving supply conditions and structural adjustments within the country’s downstream petroleum market.
For decades, Nigeria relied heavily on imported refined petroleum products despite being one of Africa’s largest crude oil producers. The resulting import dependency exposed the domestic fuel market to foreign exchange constraints, subsidy pressures and logistical inefficiencies.
Recent developments in the sector, particularly the commissioning of the Dangote Refinery, were expected to alter this structure by introducing large-scale domestic refining capacity.
However, the February consumption data suggests that the transition toward a domestically supplied fuel market remains uneven.
The decline in daily consumption from 60.2 million litres in January to 56.9 million litres in February may reflect a combination of market and policy factors.
Higher fuel prices following subsidy removal, evolving supply chains and changing consumer behaviour have collectively influenced demand patterns in the downstream market.
At the same time, the data showing reduced petrol supply from the Dangote Refinery during the period indicates that the integration of new refining capacity into the domestic fuel distribution system is still stabilising.
Large-scale refineries typically require extended ramp-up periods before reaching optimal production levels.
Consequently, fluctuations in supply volumes during the early operational phase are not uncommon.
More structurally significant, however, is the continued inactivity of Nigeria’s state-owned refineries.
These facilities were historically designed to provide domestic refining capacity but have remained largely non-operational for extended periods due to technical failures, maintenance challenges and governance constraints.
Their continued absence from the production mix places greater pressure on emerging private refining capacity to meet domestic fuel demand.
The current supply dynamics therefore represent a transitional phase in Nigeria’s downstream petroleum sector.
On one hand, the country is gradually introducing domestic refining capacity through private sector investment.
On the other, the legacy infrastructure of state-owned refineries remains largely inactive, limiting the scale at which domestic production can replace imports.
The net result is a hybrid supply system where domestic refining, imports and shifting demand patterns interact to shape consumption levels.
While a modest decline in petrol consumption may indicate improved efficiency or reduced demand pressure, it also raises questions about whether supply adjustments and price signals are reshaping consumption patterns more permanently.
In the longer term, Nigeria’s fuel market stability will depend on whether domestic refining capacity expands sufficiently to meet national demand while maintaining competitive pricing and consistent distribution.
DATA BOX
Average daily petrol consumption, January 2026: 60.2 million litres
Average daily petrol consumption, February 2026: 56.9 million litres
Monthly decline: 3.3 million litres per day
Source of data: Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority
WHO WINS / WHO LOSES
Winners
Private refining operators may gain strategic importance as Nigeria attempts to shift away from fuel import dependence.
Government fiscal authorities could also benefit if reduced consumption lowers subsidy exposure and foreign exchange pressure on fuel imports.
Potential Losers
Fuel importers may face declining market share as domestic refining capacity gradually expands.
Consumers could face continued price volatility if supply adjustments and refinery ramp-up periods affect market availability.
POLICY SIGNALS
The data signals that Nigeria’s downstream petroleum sector remains in a transitional phase following subsidy reforms and the introduction of new refining capacity.
The continued inactivity of state-owned refineries suggests that policy attention may increasingly shift toward private sector-led refining solutions.
At the same time, regulators will likely continue monitoring consumption patterns to assess the impact of pricing reforms on national fuel demand.
INVESTOR SIGNAL
The evolving supply dynamics highlight investment opportunities in domestic refining, fuel logistics and downstream distribution infrastructure.
Private refineries capable of delivering consistent supply may occupy increasingly strategic positions within Nigeria’s petroleum value chain.
However, investors will also remain attentive to regulatory stability, pricing mechanisms and foreign exchange conditions that influence the economics of fuel production and distribution.
RISK RADAR
Operational instability within newly commissioned refining facilities could lead to short-term supply fluctuations.
The prolonged inactivity of state-owned refineries remains a structural vulnerability in Nigeria’s fuel supply system.
Another risk lies in demand volatility. Sustained increases in fuel prices could permanently alter consumption behaviour, affecting long-term demand projections for petrol.
Finally, regulatory uncertainty surrounding fuel pricing and distribution frameworks may continue to influence investor confidence within Nigeria’s downstream petroleum sector.
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