Nigeria’s Trade Surplus Persists As Export Weakness Exposes Structural Import Dependence

• Surplus Holds. Structural Cracks Widen

Nigeria’s external trade numbers appear reassuring at first glance. The country still maintains a surplus. Yet beneath that headline figure lies a quieter shift that raises difficult questions about the structure of the economy. Export momentum is weakening at the same time that demand for imported goods continues to expand across critical sectors. The latest figures from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) reveal a trade position that remains positive, but increasingly fragile, sustained by a narrow export base while import dependence quietly deepens. The numbers point to a story that is less about a surplus and more about the structural pressures shaping Nigeria’s external trade. Enam Obiosio highlights…

Nigeria recently posted a trade surplus of N1.71 trillion in the fourth quarter of 2025, but the figure conceals a deeper structural shift in the country’s external trade position. Latest data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) Foreign Trade Report shows that the surplus occurred despite a significant decline in exports, reflecting weaker crude oil earnings and rising import demand.

Total merchandise trade for the quarter stood at N36.21 trillion, slightly lower than N36.60 trillion recorded in the fourth quarter of 2024 and well below N39.77 trillion posted in the third quarter of 2025.

Exports amounted to N18.96 trillion, accounting for 52.36 percent of total trade, while imports climbed to N17.25 trillion.

The data shows a clear directional shift. Exports declined 5.25 percent year on year and 16.88 percent quarter on quarter, while imports increased 3.98 percent year on year and 1.73 percent quarter on quarter.

In effect, Nigeria maintained a surplus not because export performance improved, but because export receipts still marginally exceeded import expenditure.

DECISION HIGHLIGHT

The figures underscore a continuing structural reality in Nigeria’s external trade architecture, the country remains overwhelmingly dependent on crude oil exports for foreign earnings while simultaneously importing critical food items and industrial inputs.

The data shows that crude oil exports fell sharply to N9.70 trillion, representing a 29.60 percent decline year on year and 24.24 percent decline quarter on quarter.

At the same time, import demand remained firm, particularly for motor spirit ordinary (petrol), wheat, crude petroleum oils, refined sugar inputs and used diesel vehicles, suggesting that domestic production capacity continues to lag national consumption.

The persistence of a trade surplus therefore masks a widening imbalance between commodity-based export earnings and structurally embedded import dependence.

DECISION MEMO

The fourth quarter trade numbers from the National Bureau of Statistics point to a fragile surplus sustained by legacy export structures rather than structural economic diversification.

Nigeria’s external sector remains anchored on hydrocarbons. Crude oil, natural gas, kerosene-type jet fuel and other petroleum gases still dominate export baskets. When crude earnings weaken, the country’s entire trade performance immediately deteriorates.

This pattern was evident in the fourth quarter of 2025. Crude oil export receipts declined sharply, pulling down overall export performance despite improvements in some secondary sectors.

Other oil product exports rose to N6.12 trillion, reflecting strong year-on-year growth, but this expansion could not offset the collapse in crude oil revenues.

Manufactured goods exports performed particularly poorly, falling to N423.43 billion, representing a 14.32 percent year-on-year decline and a steep 56.73 percent quarter-on-quarter drop. The contraction highlights Nigeria’s continuing struggle to develop a competitive industrial export base.

Agricultural exports showed mixed signals. The sector generated N1.32 trillion, declining 14.11 percent year on year but rising 68.20 percent quarter on quarter, indicating seasonal volatility rather than structural expansion.

Solid mineral exports showed stronger momentum, reaching N116.84 billion, a 92.48 percent increase year on year, though the sector remains too small to materially influence overall trade balances.

On the import side, Nigeria’s structural dependence became even more evident. Agricultural imports rose sharply to N1.44 trillion, growing 31.74 percent year on year and 30.24 percent quarter on quarter.

Raw material imports climbed to N2.35 trillion, increasing 11.50 percent year on year and 16.59 percent quarter on quarter.

These trends suggest that domestic manufacturing and agricultural systems continue to rely heavily on imported inputs, limiting the country’s ability to translate trade surpluses into productive industrial growth.

China remained Nigeria’s largest import partner, followed by the United States, the Netherlands, India and Brazil.

On the export side, the Netherlands, India, Spain, France and Canada were the leading destinations for Nigerian products, largely driven by energy shipments.

DATA BOX

Total Merchandise Trade (Q4 2025): N36.21 trillion
Trade Surplus: N1.71 trillion

Exports: N18.96 trillion
Imports: N17.25 trillion

Exports Share of Trade: 52.36%

Export Change:
• -5.25% year on year
• -16.88% quarter on quarter

Import Change:
• +3.98% year on year
• +1.73% quarter on quarter

Crude Oil Exports: N9.70 trillion
Other Oil Product Exports: N6.12 trillion

Manufactured Exports: N423.43 billion

Agricultural Imports: N1.44 trillion
Raw Material Imports: N2.35 trillion

WHO WINS / WHO LOSES

Winners
Energy exporters, particularly crude and petroleum product traders, remain the dominant beneficiaries of Nigeria’s external trade structure.

Import-dependent sectors such as food processors, wheat millers and downstream petroleum distributors also benefit from sustained access to imported commodities.

Losers

Domestic manufacturers remain structurally disadvantaged, as reflected in the continued contraction of manufactured exports.

Agricultural producers also lose ground as rising food imports reveal persistent productivity constraints within Nigeria’s farming systems.

POLICY SIGNALS

The data reinforces the urgency of export diversification policy, particularly in agriculture, manufacturing and solid minerals.

It also signals the continuing failure of import substitution strategies to significantly reduce dependence on foreign food and industrial inputs.

Without stronger domestic production capacity, Nigeria’s trade surplus will remain vulnerable to fluctuations in global crude oil markets.

INVESTOR SIGNAL

For investors, the data reinforces two realities.

First, the oil and gas sector remains the central driver of Nigeria’s external earnings.

Second, import substitution sectors such as agro-processing, fertilizers, and industrial raw materials production present structural investment opportunities, given the persistent rise in import demand.

RISK RADAR

Three structural risks remain visible.

First, continued volatility in crude oil export earnings, which directly affects the trade balance.

Second, rising food and industrial imports, reflecting persistent domestic supply gaps.

Third, weak manufactured export capacity, which limits Nigeria’s ability to transition toward a diversified export economy.

Taken together, the fourth quarter 2025 trade figures reveal that Nigeria’s trade surplus remains intact, but the underlying economic structure sustaining it remains fragile and heavily dependent on hydrocarbons.