Nigeria Cannot Eat Macroeconomic Stability

For too long, Nigeria has measured economic success through statistics that rarely reach the ordinary citizen, the struggling manufacturer, the shrinking retailer or the increasingly cautious investor. That contradiction stood out sharply at the recent Nigerian Economic Summit Group’s ‘Investing in Consolidation Forum’ in Abuja, where policymakers, economists and business leaders confronted an uncomfortable reality, macroeconomic stabilisation is not the same thing as economic recovery.

We acknowledge that some indicators are improving. Real Gross Domestic Product growth rose to 3.9 percent in 2025 from 3.4 percent in 2024. Inflation moderated from 33.2 percent to 23.3 percent. The exchange rate stabilised around N1,500 to N1,580 per dollar. Investor confidence has shown tentative signs of improvement. These are not insignificant developments.

But we must resist the dangerous temptation of celebrating stability while ignoring economic pain beneath the surface.

The most important statement from the forum was not about growth numbers. It was the group’s warning that there remains a “persistent disconnect between macroeconomic stabilisation and economic realities.” That single observation captures the central crisis confronting Nigeria today.

Businesses are still under pressure. Production costs remain extremely high. Purchasing power remains weak. Unemployment and underemployment continue to threaten social stability. Infrastructure deficits persist. Energy costs remain punitive. Access to affordable financing is still deeply constrained. For millions of Nigerians, the so-called recovery remains statistical rather than practical.

This is why we believe Nigeria has entered a far more difficult phase of economic reform, the consolidation phase.

Implementing painful reforms is politically difficult. Sustaining them while ensuring they translate into productivity, investment and improved livelihoods is even harder. The government can no longer rely on reform announcements alone. Nigerians are now waiting for transmission effects.

Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Taiwo Oyedele, stated that government remains focused on “deepening economic reforms, improving the ease of doing business, strengthening public financial management, and enhancing coordination across all tiers of government.”

We agree that these objectives are necessary. However, we must also state clearly that policy consistency alone will not solve Nigeria’s structural economic weaknesses unless reforms begin to penetrate the operational realities of firms and households.

The Nigerian Economic Summit Group’s Chief Economist, Dr. Olusegun Omisakin, was correct to emphasise that “firm-level transmission is broken.” That diagnosis deserves far more national attention than headline macroeconomic numbers.

The Nigerian economy cannot sustainably recover if stabilisation remains concentrated within fiscal indicators while enterprises continue struggling with supply chain disruptions, weak consumer demand, skills shortages and operational uncertainty.

We are particularly concerned about what the Nigerian Economic Summit Group described as a “new risk order” facing businesses. This matters because Nigeria’s private sector no longer fears only inflation or currency volatility. Firms are now confronting layered risks involving logistics breakdowns, talent retention, technology adaptation, regulatory complexity and shrinking consumer resilience.

That changes the economic conversation completely.

The real test of reform success is not whether inflation slows temporarily or foreign exchange volatility moderates. The real test is whether businesses can expand production, hire workers, retain customers, increase exports and compete productively. At present, that transition remains incomplete.

We must also confront another uncomfortable truth. Nigeria’s economy remains excessively fragile because productivity growth is still weak. Too much economic activity remains consumption-driven rather than production-led. Too many businesses survive through adaptation rather than expansion. Too much capital still chases arbitrage instead of industrial output.

This is why forums such as the Nigerian Economic Summit Group gathering remain important. They create rare spaces where policymakers, regulators and private sector operators can confront structural realities honestly rather than politically.

The participation of leaders from Dangote Industries Limited, Bank of Industry Limited, Lagos Free Zone Company, SeamlessHR and the Federal Competition and Consumer Protection Commission reflected an important point, economic transformation cannot be driven by government alone.

Nigeria’s private sector must now become more aggressive about innovation, productivity and long-term investment positioning. At the same time, regulators must reduce uncertainty, improve enforcement credibility and strengthen institutional efficiency.

We also believe state governments must become more economically intelligent. Coordination across all tiers of government is no longer optional. Investors do not separate federal dysfunction from state-level inefficiency. They see one investment climate.

Most importantly, we must stop mistaking temporary macroeconomic relief for structural transformation.

Nigeria’s reform journey will fail if stabilisation does not eventually produce jobs, lower production costs, stronger exports, rising industrial activity and broader household resilience.

The Nigerian Economic Summit Group forum raised the right questions. But the country now faces a more urgent challenge, whether Nigeria’s political and economic institutions possess the discipline, coordination and execution capacity required to convert fragile macroeconomic gains into genuine national productivity.

That is the phase Nigeria has entered now. And it is far more difficult than stabilisation itself.