By Olumide Johnson
The Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA) has set September 24, 2028 as its target for declaring Nigeria’s domestic gas market mature, while moving towards nationwide gas-network gridding and a digital licensing round for gas distribution areas before the end of 2026.
DECISION HIGHLIGHT
The NMDPRA is defining market maturity through infrastructure access, supply diversity, contract performance, payment discipline, reliable data and credible pricing rather than regulatory declaration alone.
DECISION MEMO
The significance of the 2028 target lies in the conditions being attached to it. Rather than treating a mature gas market as an administrative milestone, the NMDPRA is attempting to establish whether Nigeria’s gas infrastructure can support a genuinely competitive market.
Rabiu Umar, Authority Chief Executive of the NMDPRA, said the original 2030 target was being brought forward, but acknowledged that the market was not yet mature.
“As it is today, I do not believe we are there yet. In spite of the initial target of 2030, we are doing everything we can and pushing to see that by the September 24, 2028, it will be there.”
The regulatory emphasis is particularly significant around pipeline access. Umar said infrastructure controlled by a limited number of users could constrain competition, arguing: “A pipeline that only a few can use, it’s not a market, it’s a gate.”
The authority is therefore rebuilding the Nigerian Gas Transportation Network Code to establish clearer rules for injecting and withdrawing gas, including treatment of shrinkage factors. Under the proposed access framework, even a project requiring a connection of about 20 kilometres should be able to connect to an existing pipeline.
This shifts the regulatory challenge from simply increasing gas infrastructure to making infrastructure usable by a wider range of participants.
Umar also linked infrastructure development to the commercial value of Nigeria’s gas reserves: “Without infrastructure, reserves are potential. They will continue to be potential. With infrastructure, gas becomes productivity and national resilience, especially in the light of the global headwinds that we see.”
The proposed digital licensing round, based on the country’s emerging grid, could further broaden participation in gas distribution. Meanwhile, cooperation between the NMDPRA and Federal Competition and Consumer Protection Commission (FCCPC) introduces competition safeguards against price fixing, market sharing, abuse of dominance, capacity hoarding and discriminatory access.
DATA BOX
- Target for mature domestic gas market: September 24, 2028.
- Previous target: 2030.
- Nationwide gas-network gridding expected to conclude in September 2026.
- Digital gas distribution licensing round planned before year-end.
- Projects as short as 20 kilometres could qualify for pipeline connection.
- Competition framework covers price fixing, market sharing, dominance, capacity hoarding and discriminatory access.
- NMDPRA is accelerating approvals for processing, pipelines, storage, compressed natural gas and liquefied natural gas projects.
WHO WINS / WHO LOSES
Gas producers, processors, distributors and industrial users stand to benefit from clearer access rules and potentially broader infrastructure utilisation.
Incumbent operators could face greater competitive pressure where previously controlled infrastructure becomes more accessible, although the NMDPRA says existing investment and capacity constraints will remain protected.
POLICY SIGNALS
Nigeria’s gas strategy is moving from reserve monetisation towards market architecture, with infrastructure access and competition becoming central regulatory objectives.
INVESTOR SIGNAL
A clearer access regime could improve the investability of midstream and downstream gas projects by reducing uncertainty around infrastructure connectivity, market participation and pricing.
RISK RADAR
The 2028 target depends on infrastructure delivery, payment discipline, contract enforcement, reliable market data and credible pricing. Regulatory openness will also need to coexist with protection for existing investors whose pipelines are already operating at full capacity.
Olumide Johnson is a journalist, reporting on energy, maritime, business, and developments shaping Nigeria’s economy.
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