NUPRC Launches 2026 Licensing Round Following Tinubu’s Approval

By Johnson Emmanuel

The Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) has announced that the 2026 Oil Licensing Round will commence by the third quarter of 2026 following approval by President Bola Ahmed Tinubu in his capacity as Minister of Petroleum Resources under the Petroleum Industry Act. Commission Chief Executive, Mrs. Oritsemeyiwa Eyesan, disclosed this in Abuja during the recent meeting with Dr. Oliver Quinn, Group Chief Executive Officer of Meren Energy. Eyesan stated that commercial bidding for the ongoing 2025 Licensing Round will take place in July, after which preparations for the next round will begin. She linked increased participation in the 2025 exercise to regulatory reforms, rising investment inflows and improving production trends.

Eyesan said: “We are also fortunate that the President and Minister of Petroleum Resources has approved the 2026 Licensing Round. So, we are in the process of finalising the 2026 launch, which will happen by the third quarter at the latest. So, this is the make-or-break point, and we want to make sure we make it.”

Simultaneously, the commission confirmed that a one-day warning strike by workers under the Petroleum and Natural Gas Senior Staff Association of Nigeria and the Nigeria Union of Petroleum and Natural Gas Workers was suspended after approximately 12 hours, with regulatory operations and crude oil production remaining unaffected.

DECISION HIGHLIGHT

The federal government is institutionalising annual upstream licensing rounds under the Petroleum Industry Act framework, signalling a transition from episodic acreage awards to a more predictable investment cycle designed to sustain exploration, production growth and capital inflows.

DECISION MEMO

The significance of the 2026 Licensing Round extends beyond acreage allocation. It represents a test of whether the Petroleum Industry Act can consistently deliver regulatory certainty, investor confidence and competitive asset awards.

Historically, irregular licensing exercises created uncertainty around asset access and long-term investment planning. By moving rapidly from the 2025 round into a 2026 cycle, NUPRC is attempting to establish predictability as a competitive advantage in attracting global upstream capital.

Equally notable is the endorsement from Meren Energy, a long-standing investor with substantial exposure to Nigerian deepwater assets. The company’s decision to pursue additional investments and participate in licensing opportunities suggests that recent regulatory reforms are beginning to influence investor behaviour.

The timing is also strategic. Nigeria is competing for capital against other hydrocarbon-producing jurisdictions at a time when global energy investors are becoming increasingly selective. Frequent and transparent licensing rounds can help replenish reserves, attract fresh exploration activity and sustain production levels.

However, the ultimate measure of success will not be bid participation alone but the conversion of awarded assets into commercial discoveries, field development projects and increased production volumes.

DATA BOX

• 2026 Licensing Round commencement: Q3 2026
• Approval authority: President Bola Ahmed Tinubu under the Petroleum Industry Act
• 2025 Licensing Round commercial bid phase: July 2026
• Strike duration at NUPRC: Approximately 12 hours
• Operational impact: Administrative functions affected; regulatory oversight uninterrupted
• Meren Energy capital invested in Nigerian assets over 20 years: Approximately $11 billion
• Taxes and royalties paid by Meren Energy: Approximately $4 billion
• Major assets referenced: Agbami, Akpo and Egina fields
• First supplier of crude to Dangote Refinery: Meren Energy
• Key policy framework: Petroleum Industry Act
• Strategic objective: Increased investment, production growth and competitive licensing

WHO WINS / WHO LOSES

Winners

• Upstream investors seeking new acreage opportunities.
• Indigenous and international exploration companies.
• Service providers supporting exploration and field development.
• Federal government through potential increases in royalties, taxes and signature bonuses.
• Host economies benefiting from future upstream investments.

Potential Losers

• Operators unable to compete financially or technically during bid processes.
• Jurisdictions competing directly with Nigeria for upstream investment capital.
• Existing licence holders that fail to accelerate asset development amid increased competition.

POLICY SIGNALS

• Regulatory consistency is becoming a central petroleum sector objective.
• The Petroleum Industry Act framework is moving from legislation to implementation.
• Government remains committed to hydrocarbons as a major economic pillar despite energy transition pressures.
• Licensing rounds are increasingly being used as investment attraction instruments.
• Regulatory authorities are prioritising market confidence and operational continuity.

INVESTOR SIGNAL

The approval of a new licensing round before completion of the current exercise sends a strong continuity signal to investors. Meren Energy’s investment position reinforces perceptions of improving sector attractiveness. Quinn stated: “Nigeria remains the core of our business today because of the quality of these assets.”

He also stated: “I think till date, in 20 years about $11 billion in capital from our side has gone into these assets and about $4 billion has gone to tax and royalties.”

The combination of regulatory predictability, asset quality and ongoing reform implementation could improve Nigeria’s competitiveness in attracting exploration and production capital.

RISK RADAR

• Delays in transitioning awarded licences into producing assets.
• Global energy transition pressures affecting long-term investment appetite.
• Oil price volatility influencing bid valuations and project economics.
• Regulatory credibility risks if licensing timelines are not maintained.
• Security and operational risks in producing regions.
• Potential labour relations issues despite the resolution of the recent warning strike.
• Competition from other African and global hydrocarbon jurisdictions for limited exploration capital.

The commission’s handling of the industrial dispute also carries a secondary policy message. By emphasising that production and regulatory oversight remained uninterrupted, NUPRC sought to reassure investors that institutional stability remains intact even during internal labour disagreements.