FG Unveils Roadmap For Inclusive Growth, a $1trn Economy

By Kingsley Ani

The Coordinating Minister of the Economy and Minister of Finance, Dr Taiwo Oyedele, speaking at the recently held 14th BusinessDay CEO Forum in Lagos, declared that Nigeria has moved beyond restoring macroeconomic stability and must now convert economic reforms into inclusive growth, higher productivity and shared prosperity. He unveiled a roadmap anchored on productivity, revenue optimisation and inclusion to support the federal government’s ambition of building a $1 trillion economy by 2030, while urging businesses to accelerate investment and innovation.

DECISION HIGHLIGHT

The policy conversation is shifting from whether reforms have stabilised the economy to whether that stability can generate broad-based prosperity, productive investment and measurable improvements in living standards.

DECISION MEMO

Macroeconomic stability is increasingly becoming a starting point rather than the destination of Nigeria’s economic reform programme. The more significant policy question is whether improved fiscal and monetary conditions can translate into sustained productivity, job creation and rising household incomes.

That strategic shift formed the centrepiece of Oyedele’s address. He argued that the national debate has evolved from restoring stability to ensuring that businesses, workers and households experience tangible economic gains. As he stated, “Macroeconomic stability is not the destination. It is only the foundation upon which prosperity must be built.” He further explained that “A stable economy can still be stagnant if productivity remains low. Stability must attract investment, investment must increase productivity, productivity must create jobs, and those jobs must improve the lives of citizens.”

To bridge that transition, Oyedele outlined three strategic pillars. The first is productivity, aimed at shifting Nigeria from dependence on resource distribution to value creation through manufacturing, agro-processing, technology, renewable energy and light industry. “We must stop exporting raw materials and importing finished products. Nigeria must become an economy that manufactures, processes, and competes internationally,” he said.

The second pillar focuses on revenue optimisation through tax reform. Rather than raising tax burdens, the objective is to simplify compliance, eliminate multiple taxation and reduce regulatory costs. Oyedele argued that removing excessive bureaucracy could generate benefits comparable to making Nigeria “a tax-free destination for businesses without reducing government revenue.”

The third pillar is inclusion, recognising that economic expansion is unsustainable if large segments of the population remain excluded. He reaffirmed support for education, skills development and small and medium-sized enterprises, stating, “Our support for SMEs is not charity. These businesses remain the country’s biggest creators of jobs and innovation.” To measure progress, the Ministry will track reductions in multidimensional poverty, improvements in real income per capita and declining inequality.

The broader significance of the roadmap lies in its attempt to redefine policy success. Instead of judging reforms solely by inflation, reserves or exchange rate stability, government is signalling that future credibility will increasingly depend on productivity growth, investment, employment and improvements in living standards. In that sense, prosperity – not stability – is emerging as the next benchmark for reform.

DATA BOX

Strategic Target

• $1 trillion economy by 2030

Three Reform Pillars

• Productivity
• Revenue optimisation
• Inclusion

Priority Sectors

• Technology and digital services
• Agriculture and agro-processing
• Manufacturing
• Energy transition
• Financial services

Shared Prosperity Indicators

• Reduction in multidimensional poverty
• Higher real income per capita
• Lower inequality

Business Support Measures

• Company Income Tax exemption for qualifying small businesses
• Expanded access to development finance
• Free registration of 250,000 small businesses
• Approximately 10,000 new business registration applications daily

WHO WINS / WHO LOSES

Wins

• Productive sectors positioned for investment.
• Small and medium-sized enterprises.
• Workers through greater employment opportunities.
• Investors seeking policy continuity and regulatory certainty.

Loses

• Low-productivity economic activity.
• Excessive regulatory bottlenecks.
• Growth models driven primarily by consumption rather than production.

POLICY SIGNALS

Government is repositioning economic policy from stabilisation towards productivity-led growth, with tax reform, industrial development, private investment and inclusion becoming the principal transmission channels for long-term prosperity.

INVESTOR SIGNAL

The roadmap strengthens the medium-term investment narrative by linking macroeconomic stability with structural reforms that target productivity, industrial expansion, regulatory efficiency and private-sector-led growth. Its success, however, will depend on consistent implementation across institutions and levels of government.

RISK RADAR

Achieving a $1 trillion economy will require sustained policy consistency, stronger execution, accelerated private investment, infrastructure delivery and effective coordination between fiscal and monetary authorities. Delays in implementation or weaker investment response could slow the transition from stability to shared prosperity.