Nigeria’s Inflation Down To 15.39%, But Food Prices Keep Cost-of-Living Pressure Alive

By Jennete Ugo Anya

Nigeria’s headline inflation rate eased marginally to 15.39 percent in August 2026, extending the recent moderation in price pressures. The latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) report from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), however, shows that the bigger movement came from a sharp slowdown in month-on-month and food inflation.

DEVELOPMENT:

The NBS reported on Tuesday that headline inflation declined from 15.43 percent in July to 15.39 percent in August, a 0.04 percentage point reduction.

The month-on-month rate recorded a much stronger moderation, falling to 0.71 percent from 1.57 percent in July.

“This means that in August 2026, the rate of increase in the average price level was lower than the rate of increase in the average price level in July 2026,” the NBS said.

Food inflation also continued to ease, dropping to 19.57 percent year-on-year in August from 25.30 percent a year earlier.

DATA:

The sharpest adjustment was in month-on-month food inflation, which fell to 1.02 percent in August from 5.56 percent in July, a decline of 4.55 percentage points.

“This shows that the average prices of food items are increasing at a decreasing rate in August 2026,” the NBS said.

The movement was attributed largely to changes in the prices of items including palm oil, carrots, pepper, onions, cassava flour, beef, yam flour, water yam, egusi, ginger, fresh fish, Irish potatoes, wheat grain, frozen chicken and turkey.

But food-price pressures remain highly uneven across states. Adamawa recorded the highest year-on-year food inflation at 38.85 percent, followed by Zamfara at 37.96 percent and Bayelsa at 36.20 percent. Borno recorded the lowest at -4.04 percent.

On a monthly basis, Katsina had the highest food inflation at 9.48 percent, followed by Rivers at 8.86 percent and Osun at 8.32 percent. Taraba recorded the lowest at -12.42 percent.

SIGNIFICANCE:

The headline decline provides evidence of easing inflationary momentum, but the 19.57 percent food inflation rate shows that households remain under substantial pressure. The divergence between national averages and state-level outcomes also highlights the uneven distribution of food-price pressures.

For businesses and investors, slower monthly inflation could eventually improve planning visibility, but sustained moderation will depend on food supply, logistics, energy costs, exchange-rate conditions and broader macroeconomic stability.

NEXT MOVE:

The key indicators are whether the monthly inflation slowdown persists and whether food prices continue their downward trajectory. The geographical spread of food inflation will also remain important, particularly in states where price pressures remain exceptionally high.

OUR LENS:

August’s figures suggest that Nigeria may be moving from an environment of rapidly accelerating prices towards one of slower price increases. That is not the same as falling prices.

For households, the distinction matters. Inflation at 15.39 percent means prices are still rising, only at a slower pace. The real economic test is whether this moderation becomes sustained enough to restore purchasing power, lower business costs and create room for stronger household and investment decisions.

Jennete Ugo Anya is a journalist and researcher with interests across Nigeria’s economy, public policy, business, development and strategic communications.