Nigeria’s Palm Oil Import Surge Exposes Failure To Close Domestic Supply Gap

By Ayo Susan

Nigeria’s crude palm oil imports surged sharply in the second quarter of 2026, exposing a widening gap between domestic production and consumption despite years of government efforts to expand local output and reduce import dependence.

DEVELOPMENT:

Nigeria imported crude palm oil worth about N68 billion from Liberia, Côte d’Ivoire and Ghana between April and June 2026, almost triple the N23 billion recorded in the first quarter.

Liberia dominated the supply chain with N51 billion worth of shipments, while Côte d’Ivoire supplied N15 billion and Ghana N2 billion. The import pattern indicates that domestic producers are still unable to supply enough palm oil to meet the country’s growing requirements.

Nigeria remains Africa’s largest palm oil producer and the world’s fifth-largest producer. Yet the country continues to rely on imports to bridge a structural supply deficit.

DATA:

Domestic palm oil production is estimated at about 1.5 million tonnes annually, against a previously estimated shortfall of approximately 1.25 million tonnes a year.

The quarterly import bill also increased by about N45 billion between the first and second quarters, representing an increase of roughly 196 percent. Liberia alone accounted for about three-quarters of the second-quarter import value.

SIGNIFICANCE:

The numbers point to a deeper productivity problem rather than a temporary import spike. Rising consumption is colliding with low farm productivity, production constraints and weaknesses across the value chain.

For investors and policymakers, the implication is significant. Nigeria possesses a large domestic market and a strong production base, but the persistent supply deficit means substantial value is being captured by foreign producers while local processors and farmers struggle to meet demand.

NEXT MOVE:

The critical test is whether existing government programmes can produce measurable increases in yields, acreage, processing capacity and overall domestic output. The next trade data will show whether the second-quarter surge represents a temporary adjustment or the beginning of a sustained increase in import dependence.

OUR LENS:

Nigeria’s palm oil problem is no longer simply about producing more trees. It is about fixing the economics and productivity of the entire value chain. A country that is Africa’s largest producer but still needs sharply rising imports to satisfy domestic demand is signalling that production scale alone is not enough. The real policy challenge is to convert Nigeria’s existing production advantage into reliable supply, higher productivity and competitive local value retention.

Ayo Susan is a journalist, covering business, society and emerging developments with an emphasis on credible and engaging storytelling.