Nigeria’s Petrol Import Bill Jumps 989% To N952bn In Q2

By Olumide Johnson

Nigeria’s petrol import bill surged sharply in the second quarter of 2026, reopening questions about the pace at which domestic refining is displacing imported fuel. The increase comes as the Dangote Refinery pushes for a larger share of the domestic market and has warned that continued petrol imports could force it to restrict supplies to major oil marketers.

DEVELOPMENT:
The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) said that Nigeria spent N952.15 billion on petrol imports in Q2 2026, representing a 989.4 percent increase from the N87.4 billion recorded in Q1.

Petrol was the country’s largest imported commodity during the quarter, accounting for 6.6 percent of total imports valued at N14.42 trillion.

The development is notable because it comes against the backdrop of expanding domestic refining capacity, particularly the Dangote Refinery, which has been increasing its participation in the domestic petrol market.

The refinery had warned on August 31 that it may restrict fuel supplies to major oil marketers because of continued petrol imports into Nigeria.

However, the latest quarterly increase should be viewed against a much higher base in the corresponding period of 2025.

NUMBERS:
Nigeria’s petrol import bill rose from N87.4 billion in Q1 2026 to N952.15 billion in Q2, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 989.4 percent.

Petrol represented 6.6 percent of N14.42 trillion in total imports during Q2.

But on a year-on-year basis, the picture is markedly different. The Q2 2026 petrol import bill was 66.4 percent lower than the N2.83 trillion recorded in Q2 2025.

The data therefore points to a sharp quarterly reversal rather than a return to the import levels seen a year earlier.

SIGNIFICANCE:
For investors and policymakers, the more important question is why petrol imports remain material despite the emergence of substantial domestic refining capacity.

The answer has implications for foreign exchange demand, refinery utilisation, fuel-market competition and the economics of Nigeria’s downstream petroleum sector.

The quarterly surge also introduces a potential tension between domestic refiners and import-dependent marketers. If local refineries are capable of meeting a larger share of domestic demand, sustained imports could affect their ability to secure market share and recover the capital invested in refining capacity.

At the same time, the year-on-year decline shows that domestic refining is already changing the structure of Nigeria’s fuel supply, even if the transition remains uneven.

NEXT MOVE:
The key data to watch is whether the Q2 import spike persists into Q3 and Q4.

Investors should also monitor domestic refinery output, petrol supply volumes, import approvals, pricing dynamics and the response of major marketers to the Dangote refinery’s warning.

The crucial test is whether subsequent quarters show another sharp increase in imports or a renewed decline as domestic refining capacity captures more of the market.

OUR LENS:
The N952 billion figure is less a story about Nigeria returning to its old petrol-import dependence than a signal that the transition from imported to domestically refined fuel remains incomplete.

The 989 percent quarterly jump is striking, but the 66.4 percent year-on-year decline provides the more important structural context. Nigeria is importing far less petrol than it was a year ago, yet domestic refining has not eliminated the need for imports.

That leaves the downstream market at an inflection point. The question is no longer simply whether Nigeria can refine petrol locally, but whether domestic refiners can consistently supply the market at the scale, price and reliability required to make imports commercially unnecessary.

As the Dangote Refinery itself warned, the answer will increasingly depend on who controls the marginal litre of petrol supplied to the Nigerian market.

Olumide Johnson is a journalist, reporting on energy, business, markets, policy and developments shaping Nigeria’s economy.