By Olumide Johnson
The Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) is moving to open Nigeria’s next oil licensing round by early October, putting 13 previously unlicensed blocks back into the bidding pool as the regulator seeks to accelerate upstream investment and production.
DEVELOPMENT:
The Chief Executive Officer (CEO), NUPRC, Mrs. Oritsemeyiwa Eyesan, said that the 2026 licensing round would feature new acreage across Nigeria’s deepwater, shallow-water and potentially frontier onshore basins.
“Officials are preparing to kick off the next round of auctioning by early October at the latest, with new acreage including the 13 unlicensed blocks returning to the pool from the last round,” Eyesan said.
The commission plans to make licensing rounds an annual exercise, and potentially hold two rounds a year, while shortening the process to six or seven months.
“New assets will span the country’s deepwater, shallow water and possibly frontier onshore basins,” she said.
“These will be annual, if possible, even twice-annual events. At a minimum, we’ll be going to the market on an annual basis.”
Mrs. Eyesan also said that the commission would be more selective about the assets offered, following concerns over the viability of some blocks included in the previous auction.
“I knew we were going to have a problem with some of the blocks,” the NUPRC CEO also said, acknowledging that the regulator “took a gamble” by putting some licences on the market prematurely.
The new round is expected to focus more heavily on attracting new entrants, with Renaissance and First E&P cited as examples of newer operators that have successfully developed positions in Nigeria’s upstream sector.
Beyond licensing, the NUPRC is targeting $30 billion to $50 billion in new investment in 22 deepwater projects by 2030, with new tax incentives and changing investor perceptions expected to support the investment drive.
NUMBERS:
The proposed round contains several targets that define the scale of the upstream reset:
- 13: previously unlicensed blocks expected to return to the bidding pool.
- October 2026: targeted start for the next licensing round.
- 6-7 months: proposed turnaround time for future licensing rounds.
- 300,000-600,000 bpd: production target from successive bid rounds.
- $30bn-$50bn: targeted new investment in 22 deepwater projects by 2030.
- 22: deepwater projects identified for the investment drive.
Mrs. Eyesan further said that the latest concessions are expected to add about 300,000 bpd within the first three years, while successive rounds could ultimately deliver 300,000 to 600,000 bpd.
“The target will be 300,000-600,000 b/d from successive bid rounds,” she said.
SIGNIFICANCE:
For investors, the significance of the new licensing framework is its potential to make acreage access more predictable while improving the quality of assets offered to the market.
Nigeria has sought to reverse years of declining upstream investment, making the speed and credibility of licensing increasingly important. Moving toward annual or twice-yearly bid rounds could give investors greater visibility over the pipeline of available opportunities, while a six-to-seven-month turnaround would reduce the time between bidding and award.
The emphasis on attracting new entrants is also notable. It suggests the regulator is looking beyond the traditional international oil company model toward independent and indigenous operators capable of taking smaller or mature assets through development.
The deepwater target is potentially more consequential for capital formation. The NUPRC’s ambition to attract up to $50 billion into 22 projects by 2030 places project execution, fiscal competitiveness and regulatory certainty at the centre of Nigeria’s offshore investment proposition.
NEXT MOVE:
The immediate test is whether the NUPRC meets its October timetable and whether the 13 returning blocks attract credible bids.
Investors should also watch the quality of acreage offered, the final terms of the licensing process, the speed of awards and the extent to which new entrants translate awarded acreage into actual drilling and production.
The next major indicator will be whether the deepwater investment pipeline moves from announced opportunities to Final Investment Decisions and project execution.
The crude supply framework will also require attention. Mrs. Eyesan said producers remain subject to domestic crude supply obligations but could pursue better offers from foreign buyers.
“To modernize the system, the NUPRC aims to introduce a compliance trading platform, allowing those overfulfilling their obligations to swap certificates with export-oriented producers,” she said.
Her comments on the Dangote refinery introduce another important market signal.
“I would not begrudge Dangote if it i’s not picking up domestic crude,” Eyesan said.
“It might not be prudent to procure those grades as opposed to cheaper alternatives.”
The proposed trading platform and greater flexibility in crude sourcing could therefore become important mechanisms for reconciling domestic supply obligations with commercial incentives.
OUR LENS:
Nigeria’s licensing reform is increasingly shifting from acreage allocation to capital conversion.
The central question is no longer how many blocks Nigeria can put on offer, but how quickly awarded acreage can become drilled wells, producing fields, investment returns and additional barrels.
The NUPRC’s decision to become more selective after acknowledging that it “took a gamble” with some previous blocks is therefore significant. Better acreage selection could improve the probability that licensing awards translate into development rather than dormant assets.
The proposed six-to-seven-month licensing cycle and annual market access could also make upstream investment more predictable. But predictability will only matter if it is followed by capital commitment and project execution.
The deeper signal is that Nigeria is trying to build a repeatable upstream investment pipeline, not simply conduct another licensing auction. If the regulator can consistently put commercially viable acreage before investors, shorten decision cycles and create a framework that allows operators to develop projects profitably, the 300,000-to-600,000 bpd production ambition becomes more credible.
If awards continue to accumulate without corresponding investment and field development, however, the licensing rounds will add acreage to Nigeria’s portfolio without adding enough barrels to its production base.
Olumide Johnson is a journalist, reporting on energy, business, markets, policy and developments shaping Nigeria’s economy.
Discover more from StakeBridge Media
Subscribe to get the latest posts sent to your email.