Quartus Economics Reports Stronger Per-Capita GDP Growth In Nigeria

By Kingsley Ani

Quartus Economics has reported that Nigeria’s economic growth in 2025 exceeded population growth for the first time in several years, signalling early conditions for potential poverty reduction if macroeconomic stability is sustained.

According to the report, Nigeria’s gross domestic product measured in US dollars rose from $252.1 billion in 2024 to $307.5 billion in 2025, representing a 21.98 percent increase, while per capita gross domestic product (GDP) increased 19.5 percent from $1,083 to $1,295 despite continued demographic expansion.

Drawing on data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), and the International Monetary Fund, the report attributed the improvement to stronger nominal output, modest currency appreciation, and expanding productive activity. Quartus Economics stated that “for years, Nigeria struggled to grow its economy faster than its population,” but noted that “that pattern has now reversed.”

DECISION HIGHLIGHT

Nigeria’s economic recovery narrative is increasingly shifting from aggregate growth toward per-capita productivity and welfare relevance.

DECISION MEMO

The significance of the Quartus Economics report lies not merely in stronger headline GDP growth, but in the reversal of a structural imbalance that has historically constrained living-standard improvement in Nigeria.

For years, economic expansion failed to materially improve welfare because population growth consistently outpaced productive output. The latest data suggests a temporary break from that cycle, with output growth now exceeding demographic expansion. This changes the analytical conversation from “growth without welfare gains” toward the possibility of gradual income recovery.

The role of currency stability is particularly important. Much of Nigeria’s recent poverty pressure was amplified by exchange-rate depreciation, which eroded purchasing power, weakened savings, and increased imported inflation. The reported appreciation of the naira from N1,479 per dollar to N1,436 therefore carries broader welfare implications beyond foreign-exchange optics alone.

Quartus Economics’ emphasis on per-capita output is also strategically relevant because aggregate GDP growth in isolation often masks declining individual economic outcomes in high-population-growth economies. The rise in GDP per capita suggests that productive activity may finally be scaling faster than demographic absorption pressure, at least temporarily.

However, the report’s tone of “cautious optimism” remains important. Nigeria’s per-capita income still trails historical peaks and remains vulnerable to inflation, currency instability, and uneven sectoral productivity. Sustaining the gains will require deeper structural expansion across manufacturing, agriculture, exports, and investment-intensive sectors rather than reliance on temporary macroeconomic stabilisation alone.

DATA BOX

• GDP (2024): $252.1 billion
• GDP (2025): $307.5 billion
• Dollar GDP growth: 21.98 percent
• Per-capita GDP (2024): $1,083
• Per-capita GDP (2025): $1,295
• Per-capita GDP growth: 19.5 percent
• Nominal GDP (2024): N372.8 trillion
• Nominal GDP (2025): N441.5 trillion
• Nominal GDP growth: 18.43 percent
• Population growth (2025): ~2.1 percent
• Estimated population increase: ~4.8 million people
• Exchange rate movement: N1,479/$ to N1,436/$
• Regional benchmark: Sub-Saharan Africa GDP growth average at 10.33 percent

WHO WINS / WHO LOSES

Winners:

• Households benefiting from relative currency stability and stronger per-capita output
• Investors exposed to improving macroeconomic sentiment
• Productive sectors contributing to output expansion and foreign-exchange generation

Losers:

• Economies within the region growing below Nigeria’s recent pace
• Households still excluded from productivity gains despite macroeconomic improvement
• Sectors vulnerable to renewed exchange-rate instability

POLICY SIGNALS

• Macroeconomic stabilisation is increasingly being linked to poverty-reduction strategy
• Currency management remains central to welfare outcomes and investor perception
• Policymakers may increasingly focus on per-capita growth rather than aggregate GDP alone
• Productive-sector expansion is becoming more important to long-term economic credibility

INVESTOR SIGNAL

The report strengthens the argument that Nigeria may be entering an early-stage macroeconomic recovery cycle supported by stronger output growth and improving currency stability. Rising per-capita GDP and stronger regional performance comparisons may improve international investor perception if gains prove durable.

RISK RADAR

• Growth gains remain vulnerable to exchange-rate volatility
• Inflationary pressure could continue eroding household purchasing power
• Per-capita income remains below historical highs despite recent recovery
• Population growth may again outpace output if structural reforms weaken
• Macroeconomic improvements may not translate evenly into broad-based poverty reduction