Manufactured Imports Rise To N18trn As Financing, Energy Costs Test Local Production

By Olumide Johnson

Nigeria’s manufactured goods imports rose 16.9 percent year-on-year to N17.99 trillion in the first half of 2026, according to the latest Foreign Trade Statistics released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), renewing concerns over rising import dependence and the competitiveness of domestic manufacturers.

DEVELOPMENT:

Manufactured imports increased from N15.4 trillion in H1’25 to N17.99 trillion in H1’26, with the increase accelerating in the second quarter.

Imports rose 12.1 percent quarter-on-quarter to N9.51 trillion in Q2’26, from N8.48 trillion in Q1’26. On a year-on-year basis, Q2’26 manufactured imports rose 20.7 percent from N7.88 trillion in Q2’25.

Q1’26 imports also increased 13 percent year-on-year from N7.51 trillion in Q1’25.

The development comes despite government efforts to strengthen domestic production, local content and import substitution.

DATA:

The import trajectory points to sustained demand for manufactured products that domestic producers are either unable to supply competitively or cannot produce at sufficient scale.

The supply-side constraint is reflected in manufacturing finance. In June 2026, the Manufacturers Association of Nigeria (MAN) reported that bank credit to the manufacturing sector declined by N1.92 trillion to N6.61 trillion in December 2025, from N8.53 trillion a year earlier.

MAN also highlighted the high cost of borrowing. Despite the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN)’s reduction of the Monetary Policy Rate (MPR) to 26.5 percent, average prime lending rates remained around 27 percent, while maximum lending rates at some commercial banks reached 35.6 percent.

SIGNIFICANCE:

For investors, the figures expose a gap between Nigeria’s import demand and domestic productive capacity. Rising manufactured imports can support consumer supply, but they also increase competitive pressure on local firms operating with expensive credit, energy and other production inputs.

For policymakers, the data suggests that import substitution requires more than trade restrictions. It also depends on the cost and availability of capital, energy reliability, infrastructure and production efficiency.

NEXT MOVE:

The key indicators are subsequent NBS import data, manufacturing credit conditions, lending rates, energy costs and the effectiveness of measures against smuggling and unfair import competition.

OUR LENS:

The rise in manufactured imports is more than a trade statistic. It is also an indicator of Nigeria’s productive capacity relative to domestic demand.

Until local manufacturers can access affordable finance and compete on production costs, import substitution policies will continue to face structural constraints.

The central issue, therefore, is not simply how to restrict imports, but how to make domestic production sufficiently competitive to replace them.

Olumide Johnson is a journalist, reporting on energy, business, markets, policy and developments shaping Nigeria’s economy.