TCN Challenges Grid Constraint Narrative, Highlights Its Capacity Expansion

By Olumide Johnson

Speaking at the Parliamentary and Stakeholders’ Engagement Summit on Power Sector Reforms in Lagos, Sule Abdulaziz, Managing Director and Chief Executive Officer of the Transmission Company of Nigeria (TCN), rejected claims that transmission remains the principal bottleneck in Nigeria’s electricity value chain. Drawing on industry data, Abdulaziz stated that the national grid currently possesses a wheeling capacity of 8,700 megawatts, significantly above the highest power generation level ever delivered to the grid, which reached 5,801.84 megawatts on March 4, 2025. He argued that years of infrastructure investment, transformer deployment, substation expansion and transmission line upgrades have strengthened the network’s capacity to evacuate and transmit substantially more power than is currently generated.

“The transmission network has consistently wheeled every megawatt made available to it. Our grid has the capacity and our operators have the competence. The transmission network of Nigeria is ready,” Abdulaziz said.

DECISION HIGHLIGHT

The TCN is attempting to redefine the electricity sector debate by shifting attention from transmission constraints to broader value-chain limitations, particularly generation utilisation and system-wide coordination.

Its central argument is that transmission capacity expansion has outpaced actual electricity delivered into the grid, creating spare evacuation capability that remains underutilised.

“The conclusion these figures compel is unambiguous,” Abdulaziz stated. “Nigeria’s national transmission grid today has the capacity to wheel 8,700MW, yet the highest volume of electricity ever generated and delivered to that grid has never exceeded 5,801.84MW.”

DECISION MEMO

The significance of Abdulaziz’s intervention lies in its challenge to one of the most persistent narratives within Nigeria’s power sector.

For years, transmission has often been portrayed as the weakest segment of the electricity value chain. The data presented by the TCN suggests a more nuanced reality in which installed generation capacity, available generation, gas supply constraints, distribution limitations and market inefficiencies may be contributing as much to electricity shortages as transmission infrastructure.

The numbers reveal a substantial gap between theoretical generation capacity and actual electricity delivered into the grid. While installed generation capacity stands at 13,625 megawatts, peak generation remains less than half that level.

This disconnect suggests that capacity constraints may increasingly reside outside the transmission segment.

Equally significant is the pace of infrastructure deployment undertaken by the TCN. The commissioning of 82 transformers within 23 months and the addition of approximately 8,500MVA transformation capacity indicate an aggressive network-strengthening programme designed to prepare the grid for future generation growth.

Abdulaziz linked these achievements directly to infrastructure investments and operational improvements.

“These twin records are not coincidental. They are the direct and measurable outcome of TCN’s years of infrastructure investment, engineering diligence, and operational discipline.”

The company’s ability to attract substantial international financing also carries strategic implications. Development finance institutions typically prioritise projects with measurable implementation capacity and governance credibility.

According to Abdulaziz, the TCN has secured support from the World Bank, African Development Bank, Japan International Cooperation Agency and Agence Française de Développement.

“The sustained commitment of these institutions is itself a powerful endorsement of TCN’s governance, delivery capacity and institutional credibility in the international arena,” he said.

DATA BOX

• Installed national generation capacity: 13,625 megawatts
• Current transmission wheeling capacity: 8,700 megawatts
• Previous transmission wheeling capacity: Approximately 7,000 megawatts
• Additional wheeling capacity added: 1,700 megawatts
• Record peak power transmitted: 5,801.84 megawatts
• Record daily energy delivered: 128,370.75 megawatt-hours
• Date of transmission record: March 4, 2025
• New transformers commissioned (January 2024-November 2025): 82
• Additional transformation capacity installed: Approximately 8,500MVA
• Development finance secured: More than $1.4 billion
• Key financiers: World Bank, African Development Bank, Japan International Cooperation Agency, Agence Française de Développement

WHO WINS / WHO LOSES

Winners

• Electricity consumers if generation growth eventually utilises available transmission capacity.
• Generation companies seeking improved evacuation capability.
• Regions benefiting from new substations and network reinforcements.
• Development finance institutions supporting grid expansion.

Losers

• Areas still affected by constraints outside the transmission network.
• Electricity market participants exposed to broader value-chain inefficiencies.
• Consumers expecting transmission improvements alone to resolve supply shortages.

POLICY SIGNALS

The presentation signals a growing policy effort to adopt a value-chain approach to electricity reform rather than focusing on a single segment.

It also suggests increasing federal government emphasis on transmission readiness as a foundation for future generation expansion and electricity market growth.

The role of multilateral financing highlights continued reliance on development finance to modernise strategic infrastructure.

INVESTOR SIGNAL

The strongest signal is that transmission infrastructure is expanding ahead of actual power delivery requirements.

For investors, this suggests that future opportunities may increasingly emerge in generation, gas supply, distribution and grid-connected industrial projects capable of utilising existing transmission headroom.

The more than $1.4 billion in committed development finance also indicates sustained international confidence in Nigeria’s transmission modernisation programme.

RISK RADAR

The principal risk remains the gap between installed capacity, actual generation and delivered electricity.

Transmission capacity alone cannot improve electricity supply if generation constraints, gas shortages, market liquidity challenges and distribution bottlenecks persist.

A second risk involves utilisation. Infrastructure investments generate maximum economic value only when available capacity is fully deployed.

A third risk concerns public perception. While transmission capacity has expanded significantly, consumers ultimately evaluate sector performance through hours of electricity supplied rather than technical capacity metrics.

The broader implication is that Nigeria’s electricity challenge increasingly appears less about transmission readiness and more about achieving coordinated improvements across the entire power value chain.