By Johnson Emmanuel
The Nigerian Economic Summit Group (NESG) has reported stronger business activity in September 2026, with its Current Business Performance Index (BPI) rising to 117.8 points from 112.7 points in August, driven by increased demand ahead of election-related activities and year-end festivities.
DEVELOPMENT
The October 2026 edition of the NESG Business Confidence Monitor (BCM) reported broad-based expansion across sectors, with Trade recording the strongest performance.
The report stated: “Nigeria’s business activity sustained expansionary momentum in September 2026. The Current Business Performance Index jumped to 117.8 points from 112.7 in August 2026 and 107.9 points in September 2025.”
It also stated that “the rapid improvement was driven by broad-based expansion across sectors, with Trade recording the strongest performance.”
The NESG noted that “the strong performance of trade stockpiling could be largely linked to back-to-school shopping, reflected in robust demand conditions during the month.”
Looking ahead, the Future Business Expectations Index stood at 128.9 points, slightly below 129.3 points in August.
The report further stated that “the strongest optimism was recorded in Trade (192.0 points), followed by Manufacturing (151.9 points), while Services (123.2 points) registered the weakest level of optimism.”
It added: “The cautious outlook reflects persistent energy-related cost pressures, despite positive signals from expectations of stronger demand associated with election-related activities and year-end festivities.”
The report further observed that “sentiment was uneven across sectors,” with Trade recording 192.0 points, Manufacturing 151.9 points, Non-Manufacturing 148.1 points, Agriculture 134.8 points and Services 123.2 points.
DATA
The Current BPI rose by 5.1 points month-on-month and 9.9 points year-on-year. However, the Future Business Expectations Index declined by 0.4 points from August, suggesting that expectations remain positive but have softened slightly.
SIGNIFICANCE
Stronger business activity indicates improving demand conditions and potential opportunities for traders, manufacturers and other businesses. However, seasonal stockpiling and anticipated election-related spending may not translate into sustained demand beyond the immediate period.
NEXT MOVE
Businesses and investors should monitor whether demand persists beyond seasonal purchases, alongside movements in energy costs, access to finance and sector-level confidence.
OUR LENS
The NESG findings point to a business environment in which demand is recovering faster than operating constraints are easing. The report warned: “Despite this expansion, key constraints persisted, particularly limited access to finance, irregular electricity supply, high rental costs, insecurity, and inadequate infrastructure, which contributed to elevated cost pressures during the month.”
Sustained business expansion will depend on whether improved demand can translate into stronger margins, investment and productive capacity despite these structural constraints.
Johnson Emmanuel is a journalist, covering business, investment, monetary & fiscal policies, CBN, economic affairs and issues of significance to Nigeria’s corporate and public sectors.
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