Fitch Revises Nigeria Outlook To Positive, Reserves Reach $55bn, Retains B Rating

By Jennete Ugo Anya

Fitch Ratings has revised Nigeria’s Long-Term Issuer Default Ratings outlook from Stable to Positive while affirming the country’s rating at “B”, citing sustained economic reforms, rising foreign exchange reserves and easing inflationary pressures.

DEVELOPMENT

The global rating agency said that exchange-rate flexibility, declining inflation and faster-than-expected reserve accumulation had strengthened its assessment of Nigeria’s economic prospects.

Nigeria’s gross external reserves reached $55 billion in September 2026, up from $32 billion in mid-April 2024. Fitch attributed the improvement partly to formalised foreign-exchange transactions, portfolio inflows, higher export earnings and diaspora remittances.

The agency also noted that Nigeria’s crude oil production had met the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries’ target of 1.5 million barrels per day since May 2026. Increased domestic refining capacity was also helping reduce imports of refined petroleum products and associated foreign-exchange demand.

Reacting to the development, the Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Dr. Taiwo Oyedele, said: “A positive outlook signals that the rating could be raised if current trends are sustained.”

Oyedele described the decision as further validation that the administration’s reforms were working and positively affecting the economy.

According to him, “with this action, all three major international rating agencies have taken positive rating actions on Nigeria in 2026.”

DATA

Fitch cited the following indicators in its assessment:

• External reserves: $55 billion, up from $32 billion in mid-April 2024.
• Economic growth: The World Bank projects growth of 4.3 percent in 2026.
• Inflation: Fitch forecasts an average of 15.4 percent in 2026, less than half the 2024 level.
• Crude oil production: 1.5 million barrels per day, meeting the OPEC target since May 2026.
• Sovereign rating: “B”, with the outlook upgraded from Stable to Positive.

SIGNIFICANCE

The positive outlook could improve international investor perceptions of Nigeria’s credit trajectory and support access to capital. However, the “B” rating remains below investment grade, indicating that significant credit risks persist.

Fitch also expects ongoing tax reforms to strengthen non-oil revenue mobilisation and government finances, while projected growth is expected to be driven largely by non-oil activities.

NEXT MOVE

Investors will watch reserve sustainability, inflation trends, oil production, fiscal revenue performance and the consistency of foreign-exchange policies. These indicators will help determine whether the positive outlook translates into an eventual rating upgrade.

OUR LENS

Fitch’s decision recognises improvements in Nigeria’s external buffers and macroeconomic conditions, but a positive outlook is not an upgrade of the sovereign rating itself. Sustaining the gains will require stronger fiscal capacity, predictable policies and broader productive-sector growth. The decisive test is whether improved stability translates into durable investment, employment and higher living standards.

Jennete Ugo Anya is a journalist and researcher with interests across Nigeria’s economy, public policy, business, MSMEs, development and strategic communications, Foreign direct investments, development finance institutions.